Multichannel TV Market Model and Forecasts and Associated Services

The core output of the Model is a set of detailed forecasts up to 2035 for the number of primary-set TV homes on each principal broadcast-TV platform (and showing projected levels of in-home duplication between DTT and other platforms on primary sets):

• Digital cable (UK Virgin Media): including penetration of main basic-tier packages
• Digital satellite: Pay (UK, Ireland and continental Europe), free (UK split both between FTV and FTA-only and between Sky equipment and PSB Freesat equipment)
• Free DTT (UK): idTVs and STBs
• Pay-DTT (UK): BT TV (inc. EE), and TalkTalk TV
• IPTV only (UK)

The Model also includes the following subsidiary forecasts (all UK only):

• Homes with digital non-primary sets (and distribution of digital non-primary sets by primaryset home type): cable, satellite (pay multiroom and PSB Freesat) and DTT (idTVs and STBs)
• TV set sales and installed base, by set type: showing HD-ready, DTT idTV, DTT-T2, IETV, and 4K components
• PVR rollout on primary and non-primary sets, by PVR type (Sky+, Sky Q, V+/TiVo, PSB Freesat, and all major DTT variants, including YouView and Freely)
• Availability of VOD services on primary and non-primary sets, showing IETV/STB-based components for DTT-based services
• Penetration of paid and FTA HD services on primary and non-primary sets
• Penetration of broadband Internet services by primary-set TV home type, with projected market shares of cable (with speed tiering projections) vs. DSL (with shares of the major ISPs BT, TTG, Sky including superfast cohorts)
• Penetration of SVOD services, both in aggregate and for major services
• A standalone viewing model up to 2030, setting out daily viewing to linear broadcast, linear IP, VOD and video sharing platforms, for all UK individuals and select demographics The Powerpoint presentation will accompany the model as well as the delivery of two presentations to Ofcom during the year.