Research on Direct Air Carbon Capture: what is the global abatement potential?

This procurement will engage an expert partner to provide country and regional estimates of Direct Air Carbon Capture [DACCs], at 5-yearly intervals out to 2050 and beyond.

We know that a portfolio of GGR technologies will be required to balance the residual emissions of difficult to decarbonise sectors as part of action to mitigate climate change. As a carbon removal technology, DACCs has a role in offsetting aviation and agriculture and other residual emissions from hard to abate sectors. DACCs is a first of a kind 'silver bullet' carbon removal technology that need not be limited to contemporaneous emissions. As a nascent technology, with currently only a dozen or so direct air capture plants worldwide, its potential is game-changing, while its realisation is far from guaranteed. There are several limitations on the scalability of DACCs, such as, as yet, unknown capital and operational expenditures, infrastructure and geological storage capacity. It has the capacity for broad deployment however, with no geographical constraints.

By incorporating robust projections of DACCs into our modelling we will achieve a better understanding of global carbon mitigation costs and viability of high ambition climate change mitigation targets. This will enhance the evidence base to inform policy development in-line with UKHMG ambition deliver on the Glasgow Climate Pact and accelerate sectoral decarbonisation globally, accelerating clean tech and clean energy transitions.

We seek to engage an expert partner with the knowledge-base and modelling skillset to provide a global perspective of DACCs deployment. We seek quantitative projections of DACCs abatement potential in the form of marginal abatement cost curves, across the G20 and other key regions, based on geological storage, policy demand mapping and renewable energy capacity, across 3 modelled scenarios: early action and high investment, a progressive policy pathway and delayed action.

In addition to quantitative estimates, we seek a report outlining how to interpret and use data outputs and any limitations of source data, modelling assumptions and estimates; including comparisons to alternative data sources and discussion of quality assurance undertaken.

The contract term will be 6 months with the value of £120,000 (including all non UK taxes).

DESNZ will run a market engagement event on Wednesday 22nd May 2024 11:00 -12:00 (BST) ahead of publishing the invitation to tender, expected w/c 24th June 2024. The link to sign up for the market engagement event is: https://forms.office.com/e/97qy8MDgVM Following the event the Authority is anticipating to seek feedback via questionnaire on a draft Specification shared with attendees, welcoming feedback on this Specification and commercial approach up until 17:00 on 5th June 2024.