Archetypes for transforming rural UK land-use to high-carbon, climate resilient, nature rich and economically productive systems

The CCC's advice on the level of Sixth Carbon Budget in the 2030s was accepted by Government in 2021 . Meeting the Sixth Carbon Budget and the longer-term Net Zero target by 2050 requires contribution from all sectors of the economy, including the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sectors. This will require a transformation in how land is used in the UK, with land released out of agricultural production for alternative uses such as afforestation, peatland restoration and bioenergy crops. Under the Balanced Pathway, we estimated that 9% of agricultural land would be needed to deliver these measures, rising to a fifth by 2050.

In addition to climate change mitigation, transforming land use can deliver other multiple objectives, including adapting to climate change, biodiversity, and other environmental goals. The CCC's third Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk (CCRA3) identified eight priority risk areas that the Committee identified as being critical for adaptation in the next two years, four of which relate to the natural environment and the use of land. Effective action to change land use before projected climate change impacts occur must be investigated to enable land managers to protect and enhance the land's ability to maintain the delivery of essential ecosystem services.

Our analysis to date has focused on estimating the impact of land use change and management on carbon and GHG emissions at the national level (i.e. England and each of the devolved administrations (DAs)). In practice, the changes that are needed to mitigate and prepare for climate change will vary across different locations according to a range of climatic, economic, social and environmental factors, at the farm, catchment and landscape level.

The aim of this project therefore is to identify and quantify the impact of a set of plausible land use transitions for a number of representative rural land use 'archetypes' in England and the UK's DAs out to 2035 and 2050. The transitions should focus on changes in land use and management that deliver increased carbon sequestration and GHG emissions reductions, and which can also contribute to climate resilience, maintenance of food production, increased biodiversity and deliver co-benefits such as access to nature. In some cases, there may be trade-offs, and these should also be identified.

In future, the CCC expect to develop full spatial scenarios for UK land-use change that deliver across the multiple objectives. This project does not aim to develop these spatial scenarios, but it will be used to inform any such future work.

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Additional information: Closing date extended to 11/01/2023 @ 10am