Development of modelling and scenarios for achieving the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history with around 1 million animal and plant species threatened with extinction within decades . Human activities have pushed many species to the brink of extinction and ecosystems to degradation through land- and sea-use change, overexploitation, pollution, climate change, and invasive species. Biodiversity loss is not only an environmental issue, but also a developmental, economic, security, and social one. To date, agreements to halt and reverse biodiversity loss have failed to reach the desired targets. In December 2022, the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), a landmark agreement for biodiversity. It sets out four long-term goals to be achieved by 2050, related to the CBD's 2050 Vision for Biodiversity of "a world of living in harmony with nature where, by 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people", and 23 short-term targets to be achieved by 2030, which will contribute towards achieving these goals.

The aim of this research is to align and further build on the best available and most appropriate models (biophysical, social, environmental, economic) with the KMGBF to provide clear pathways and insight into the physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to achieve the framework.