Government Actuary's Department - Economic Scenarios

The Government Actuary's Department ('GAD') is a non-ministerial Government department with a mission to improve the stewardship of public sector finances by supporting effective decision-making and robust financial reporting through actuarial analysis, modelling and advice. We provide actuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public sector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards of professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK public sector.

GAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a stochastic real-world economic scenario set ("scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering investment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor in the UK.

GAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract is a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis to the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single client, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work for other clients where we deem it to be applicable.

We require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December 2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be based on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views.

Based on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the client, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential outcomes include:

These additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December 2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement exercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require one additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required.

Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process