Understanding the tail of the electric vehicle transition

Surface transport is currently the UK's highest-emitting sector, and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will play a significant role in changing this on the UK's path to Net Zero. This transition is now well underway, and we have seen a rapid increase in EV uptake over recent years, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up 17% of new car sales and 6% of new van sales in 2022.

To build on this early progress, the Government is expected to introduce a zero-emission vehicle mandate from 2024 that will require new sales of zero-emission vehicles (most likely BEVs) to scale up each year to reach the majority of new car and van sales by the end of the decade. As a result of this policy, along with market trends, we now have clarity on the minimum rate at which EV sales can be expected to grow through the 2020s. Beyond this, sales are expected to continue growing to meet the requirement that all new cars and vans must have zero tailpipe emissions by 2035. These are likely to be almost exclusively BEVs.

While the zero-emission vehicle mandate provides a trajectory for how the share of EVs within the new car market will scale up, what ultimately matters in terms of reducing emissions is the rate at which the entire fleet of cars and vans turns over from petrol/diesel to electric. As a typical car or van currently remains on the road for around 14 years, this may take some time even once EVs reach full market penetration, and some older petrol and diesel vehicles are likely to continue running for a considerable period. These vehicles will also continue to be sold in the used vehicle market, alongside a growing market for used EVs.

This research is looking to understand more about this 'tail' phase of the EV rollout, in particular looking at the impacts it could have on the rate at which the fleet switches to EVs and exploring potential interventions that could accelerate this process. This research will be used to inform updates to the CCC's assumed pathways for EV uptake.

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