UKSBS - PS21171 - Global Projections of Energy Sector Emissions

***** THIS IS AN AWARD NOTICE, NOT A CALL FOR COMPETITION *****

This procurement is being concluded following a mini competition under the RM6018 CCS Research Marketplace DPS.

Up-to-date estimates on emissions and abatement potentials within Energy and industry sectors will be used in support of policy programmes and initiatives within BEIS. The data will support modelling of climate scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature objective (e.g. well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels) reflecting the latest developments and projections in markets, technology and household behaviour, as well as country commitments to tackle climate change.

Historic data and projections of emissions from energy sectors, including process emissions and the costs of reducing them are required, at global coverage:

1. Projections of a Business as Usual [BaU] / Current Policies emissions scenario are required.
2. The costs of reducing emissions need to be modelled in the form of marginal abatement cost curves [MACCs] for at least the period 2020-2050.

The BaU provides a counterfactual from which MACCs can be subtracted to model future emissions projections given different action scenarios. It is necessary that the MACCs reflect a range of action pathways. Traditionally the MACCs have simulated 3 approaches to climate action: progressive climate action policy adoption, or rather a linear adoption of increased climate ambition policies; early action reflecting largescale, near term investment in climate ambition policies and technology, modelling greater abatement costs in the short-term, but low abatement costs overall; and delayed action where action is deferred and the curve of abatement follows an exponential growth shape reaching high marginal costs. We invite bidders to suggest further sensitivities within the procurement that may increase the scope of scenarios modelled.

At a minimum, coverage including historical emissions for the years 1990 - 2050 should be provided at 5-yearly intervals. Reduced accuracy for outputs relating to later years (e.g. greater uncertainty associated with longer future horizons) or path dependencies across time periods (e.g. future abatement options being precluded by historical abatement decisions) should be clearly described.

The project must be completed by the end of March 2022.