Analysis of pathways to maximise emissions reduction in the agriculture and land use sectors beyond 2050

Land excluding built-up areas (referred to here as ‘non-developed land’, which include agricultural land, woodlands and semi-natural habitats) is an important and finite resource. It provides a wide range of sometimes competing goods and services such as food, water, wildlife habitats, carbon storage, flood attenuation and green spaces for recreational activities. We expect that the use and management of non-developed land will play a crucial role as part of a global and UK pathway to net zero emissions in the second half of the century given its current uniqueness amongst all sectors to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and the possibility of combining it with technologies such as carbon, capture and storage (CCS) to deliver negative emissions. Whilst the CCC has not explored emissions pathways for stronger ambition in the UK, it is likely that the contribution required from the UK agriculture and LULUCF sectors will need to increase significantly and may need to reach net negative in the second half of the century.

It is against this background that we want to explore further how the use and management of land and livestock could deliver longer-term deeper emissions cuts and increased GHG removals in the UK agriculture and LULUCF sectors by 2100. In considering different scenarios of land use and management practices that deliver increased ambition, we are also interested in how the choices made affect the resilience of affected sectors to future climate change. The aim is to identify land use scenarios that can achieve deeper emissions reductions, which may reach net negative, whilst also taking into account resilience.

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