Development of biodiversity modelling and scenarios for the goals and targets of

Aims and Objectives - Development of biodiversity modelling and scenarios for the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

The aim of this research is to align and further build on the best available and most appropriate models (biophysical, social, environmental, economic) with the KMGBF to provide clear pathways and insight into the physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to achieve the framework.

This may be achieved through the following objectives:

Design a quantitative modelling approach that assesses existing and anticipated global policies against KMGBF goals and targets in the context of a dynamic global physical, social and economic environment. This can include predictions that take into account direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss.

Identify and/or develop scenarios and their respective uncertainties. These scenarios will be based on global policies, commitments and economic/environmental baselines to be simulated in this modelling approach reflecting different evidence about existing and planned policies' effectiveness and the future state of the world.

Establish the current 'gap' for achieving the KMGBF goals and targets. This will identify pathways and drivers to provide predictions of where we will get to and when, and assess their feasibility under these different scenarios.

Identify the types of policy physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to address the 'gap' and achieve multiple global goals/targets simultaneously.

Identify synergies and trade-offs between individual KMGBF targets and with other frameworks, including the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Anticipated outcomes of the project include:

Improved understanding of different pathways for achieving the goals and targets of the KMGBF and the drivers behind them, using models to answer specific policy-relevant research questions.

A clearer insight into the impacts of future policy decisions through a better understanding of the most effective interventions, their global/local context, any unintended consequences, and the barriers currently preventing their implementation.

Accessible knowledge base on biodiversity, ecosystem service and relevant socio-economic modelling through clearly communicating findings in an engaging and impactful manner, using innovative communication methods such as infographics, as well as by making any models and databases used available to Defra.

Models that are aligned with KMGBF indicators as well as others of interest (such as Paris Agreement and SDGs) and can be used to answer policy-relevant questions.